know how to do well. Perhaps you have been a chef for ten years and have always dreamed of opening your own restaurant. So far, so good-but you arent home free yet. There is another fundamental question that needs answering: Does the world need, and is it willing to pay for, the product or service you want to sell? For example, do the people in the small town where you live really want an Indonesian restaurant? If your answer is "yes" because times are good and people have extra money, ask yourself what is likely to happen if the economy goes into a slump ten minutes after you open your doors.     To make this point more broadly, lets use a railroad train as a metaphor for our economic society. And lets have you, as a potential new businessperson, stand by the tracks. How do you deal with the train when it arrives? You can get on and ride. You can continue to stand by the tracks and watch the train disappear in the distance. Or you can stand in the middle of the tracks and get run over.     To continue this metaphor, lets now assume the economic train has three engines: taste, trends and technology. Together they pull the heavy steel cars which can give you a comfortable ride or flatten you. Lets take a moment to think more about each of these engines.     1. Taste     Peoples tastes drive many of the changes our society speeds through. For example, in the 1970s, many of us changed our taste in automobiles from large gas guzzlers to small, well-built cars. American manufacturers didnt recognize this change in taste until they almost went broke. The Japanese were in the right place with small, reliable cars and realized great prosperity.     Consider popular music as another example. Music styles change every few years, and some bright businesspeople succeed by selling clothing and other accessories associated with each new music style.     What does this mean to you? Look at your business idea again. How does it fit with todays tastes? Is your business idea part of a six-month fad? Are you going into something that was more popular five years ago than it is now and is declining rapidly? If so, you are likely to go broke no matter how good a manager you are and how much you love your business.     2. Trends     Its one thing to understand that peoples tastes have changed and will undoubtedly change again and again, but its a lot harder to accurately predict what will be popular in a few years. I wish there were a central source of information about predicting future trends in any field, but there isnt. You have the task of looking into the future and deciding where it is going and how that affects what you do today. Fortunately, a little research can do wonders. Here are some tips on how to proceed.     Read everything you can about your field of interest. Attend trade shows and talk to people in small businesses at the cutting edge of the field. Talk to people in similar businesses. Read back issues of magazines aimed at your proposed field. Your goal is to know enough about your proposed business to spot the trends that will continue into the next decade. For example, if youre interested in opening a night club from the 1950s featuring a piano bar, mixed drinks and lots of room for smokers, you should know that the consumption of hard liquor and cigarettes has gone down sharply in recent years and that certain types of reduced-smoke lounges with wine and imported beer are doing very well. Putting this information together with other factors, such as your anticipated location and target customers, should give you a pretty good idea of what drinks you should offer. You might decide to serve a number of varieties of fine wine and imported beer and